EXTENDED-RANGE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GANGES AND BRAHMAPUTRA FLOODS IN BANGLADESH

The authors have developed a new extended-range flood forecasting system for large river basins that uses satellite data and statistically rendered probabilistic weather and climate predictions to initialize basin-scale hydrological models. The forecasting system overcomes the absence of upstreamflo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2010-11, Vol.91 (11), p.1493-1514
Main Authors: Webster, Peter J., Jian, Jun, Hopson, Thomas M., Hoyos, Carlos D., Agudelo, Paula A., Chang, Hai-Ru, Curry, Judith A., Grossman, Robert L., Palmer, Timothy N., Subbiah, A. R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analytical forecasting
Climate models
Climate prediction
Developing countries
Disaster management
Emergency preparedness
Flood forecasting
Flood irrigation
Flood predictions
Flooding
Floods
Freshwater
Hydrologic models
LDCs
Meteorology
Precipitation
Probability
Probability forecasts
Rain
River basins
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The authors have developed a new extended-range flood forecasting system for large river basins that uses satellite data and statistically rendered probabilistic weather and climate predictions to initialize basin-scale hydrological models. The forecasting system overcomes the absence of upstreamflow data, a problem that is prevalent in the developing world. Forecasts of the Ganges and Brahmaputra discharge into Bangladesh were made in real time on 1–10-day time horizons for the period 2003–08. Serious flooding of the Brahmaputra occurred in 2004, 2007, and 2008. Detailed forecasts of the flood onset and withdrawal were made 10 days in advance for each of the flooding events with correlations at 10 days ≥0.8 and Brier scores
ISSN:0003-0007
1520-0477
DOI:10.1175/2010bams2911.1