Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics

Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates 1 , 2 , and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability 3 . The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) 2001-09, Vol.413 (6854), p.417-420
Main Authors: Thompson, Paul M., Ollason, Janet C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal and plant ecology
Animal populations
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Animals
Annual variations
Aquatic birds
Atlantic Ocean
Aves
Biological and medical sciences
Birds
Birds - physiology
Breeding
Climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Demecology
Dynamics
Environmental changes
Environmental effects
Female
Food quality
Fulmarus glacialis
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Growing season
Humanities and Social Sciences
letter
Male
Marine
Marine fish
multidisciplinary
North Atlantic oscillation
Oceans
Population Dynamics
Predators
Recruitment
Reproduction
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Trophic levels
Vertebrata
Zooplankton
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Summary:Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates 1 , 2 , and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability 3 . The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton 4 , 5 , but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.
ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/35096558