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Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair
Background: The aim was to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for 30‐day mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. Methods: Data collected prospectively on 2765 consecutive patients undergoing elective open and endovascular AAA repair from September 1999 to Octo...
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| Published in: | British journal of surgery 2011-05, Vol.98 (5), p.652-658 |
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| container_end_page | 658 |
| container_issue | 5 |
| container_start_page | 652 |
| container_title | British journal of surgery |
| container_volume | 98 |
| creator | Grant, S. W. Grayson, A. D. Purkayastha, D. Wilson, S. D. McCollum, C. |
| description | Background:
The aim was to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for 30‐day mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair.
Methods:
Data collected prospectively on 2765 consecutive patients undergoing elective open and endovascular AAA repair from September 1999 to October 2009 in the North West of England were split randomly into development (1936 patients) and validation (829) data sets. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify risk factors for 30‐day mortality.
Results:
Ninety‐eight deaths (5·1 per cent) were recorded in the development data set. Variables associated with 30‐day mortality included: increasing age (P = 0·005), female sex (P = 0·002), diabetes (P = 0·029), raised serum creatinine level (P = 0·006), respiratory disease (P = 0·031), antiplatelet medication (P < 0·001) and open surgery (P = 0·002). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicted probability of 30‐day mortality in the development and validation data sets was 0·73 and 0·70 respectively. Observed versus expected 30‐day mortality was 3·2 versus 2·0 per cent (P = 0·272) in low‐risk, 6·1 versus 5·1 per cent (P = 0·671) in medium‐risk and 11·1 versus 10·7 per cent (P = 0·879) in high‐risk patients.
Conclusion:
This multivariable model for predicting 30‐day mortality following elective AAA repair can be used clinically to calculate patient‐specific risk and is useful for case‐mix adjustment. The model predicted well across all risk groups in the validation data set. Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Outcome can be predicted |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/bjs.7463 |
| format | article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_867326158</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>867326158</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3893-1e2ef646de9a77cf50672abba3f7da774262af3576769ab11026e083742c62653</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNpFkU1PwkAQhjdGI4gm_gLTi_FU3I92tz0KUdAgHpRw3EzbLVnYUtwtIv_eJSCc5uuZyeR9EboluEswpo_Z3HVFxNkZahPG45ASnpyjNsZYhIRR1kJXzs0xJgzH9BK1KIkITVPRRpNRPdOu0XlgtVsEVV0oE5S19ZltwOhm6ytj6o1ezgJlVN7oHxVAVtSVXoIJwGN-GZZqbbeuCqxagbbX6KIE49TNIXbQ5OX5qz8MRx-D1_7TKMxZkrKQKKpKHvFCpSBEXsaYCwpZBqwUhe9ElFMoWSy44ClkhGDKFU6YH-Sc8ph10MP-7srW32vlGllplytj_D_12smEC0Y5iRNP3h3IdVapQq6srsBu5b8SHrg_AOByMKWFZa7diYswj1MvYAeFe26jjdoe5wTLnRPSOyF3Tsje2-cunnivsvo98mAX0j8nYjkdD-T7OOkNxTSRffYHlumJVg</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>867326158</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair</title><source>Oxford University Press:Jisc Collections:OUP Read and Publish 2024-2025 (2024 collection) (Reading list)</source><creator>Grant, S. W. ; Grayson, A. D. ; Purkayastha, D. ; Wilson, S. D. ; McCollum, C.</creator><creatorcontrib>Grant, S. W. ; Grayson, A. D. ; Purkayastha, D. ; Wilson, S. D. ; McCollum, C. ; participants in the Vascular Governance North West Programme</creatorcontrib><description>Background:
The aim was to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for 30‐day mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair.
Methods:
Data collected prospectively on 2765 consecutive patients undergoing elective open and endovascular AAA repair from September 1999 to October 2009 in the North West of England were split randomly into development (1936 patients) and validation (829) data sets. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify risk factors for 30‐day mortality.
Results:
Ninety‐eight deaths (5·1 per cent) were recorded in the development data set. Variables associated with 30‐day mortality included: increasing age (P = 0·005), female sex (P = 0·002), diabetes (P = 0·029), raised serum creatinine level (P = 0·006), respiratory disease (P = 0·031), antiplatelet medication (P < 0·001) and open surgery (P = 0·002). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicted probability of 30‐day mortality in the development and validation data sets was 0·73 and 0·70 respectively. Observed versus expected 30‐day mortality was 3·2 versus 2·0 per cent (P = 0·272) in low‐risk, 6·1 versus 5·1 per cent (P = 0·671) in medium‐risk and 11·1 versus 10·7 per cent (P = 0·879) in high‐risk patients.
Conclusion:
This multivariable model for predicting 30‐day mortality following elective AAA repair can be used clinically to calculate patient‐specific risk and is useful for case‐mix adjustment. The model predicted well across all risk groups in the validation data set. Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Outcome can be predicted</description><identifier>ISSN: 0007-1323</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1365-2168</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/bjs.7463</identifier><identifier>PMID: 21412997</identifier><identifier>CODEN: BJSUAM</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</publisher><subject>Adult ; Aged ; Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - mortality ; Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - surgery ; Biological and medical sciences ; Blood and lymphatic vessels ; Cardiology. Vascular system ; Diseases of the aorta ; Elective Surgical Procedures - mortality ; England - epidemiology ; Epidemiologic Methods ; Epidemiology ; Female ; General aspects ; Humans ; Male ; Medical sciences ; Middle Aged ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</subject><ispartof>British journal of surgery, 2011-05, Vol.98 (5), p.652-658</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3893-1e2ef646de9a77cf50672abba3f7da774262af3576769ab11026e083742c62653</citedby></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27923,27924</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=24065901$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21412997$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Grant, S. W.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Grayson, A. D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Purkayastha, D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wilson, S. D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>McCollum, C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>participants in the Vascular Governance North West Programme</creatorcontrib><title>Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair</title><title>British journal of surgery</title><addtitle>Br J Surg</addtitle><description>Background:
The aim was to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for 30‐day mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair.
Methods:
Data collected prospectively on 2765 consecutive patients undergoing elective open and endovascular AAA repair from September 1999 to October 2009 in the North West of England were split randomly into development (1936 patients) and validation (829) data sets. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify risk factors for 30‐day mortality.
Results:
Ninety‐eight deaths (5·1 per cent) were recorded in the development data set. Variables associated with 30‐day mortality included: increasing age (P = 0·005), female sex (P = 0·002), diabetes (P = 0·029), raised serum creatinine level (P = 0·006), respiratory disease (P = 0·031), antiplatelet medication (P < 0·001) and open surgery (P = 0·002). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicted probability of 30‐day mortality in the development and validation data sets was 0·73 and 0·70 respectively. Observed versus expected 30‐day mortality was 3·2 versus 2·0 per cent (P = 0·272) in low‐risk, 6·1 versus 5·1 per cent (P = 0·671) in medium‐risk and 11·1 versus 10·7 per cent (P = 0·879) in high‐risk patients.
Conclusion:
This multivariable model for predicting 30‐day mortality following elective AAA repair can be used clinically to calculate patient‐specific risk and is useful for case‐mix adjustment. The model predicted well across all risk groups in the validation data set. Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Outcome can be predicted</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - mortality</subject><subject>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - surgery</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Blood and lymphatic vessels</subject><subject>Cardiology. Vascular system</subject><subject>Diseases of the aorta</subject><subject>Elective Surgical Procedures - mortality</subject><subject>England - epidemiology</subject><subject>Epidemiologic Methods</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>General aspects</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Public health. Hygiene</subject><subject>Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</subject><issn>0007-1323</issn><issn>1365-2168</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2011</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNpFkU1PwkAQhjdGI4gm_gLTi_FU3I92tz0KUdAgHpRw3EzbLVnYUtwtIv_eJSCc5uuZyeR9EboluEswpo_Z3HVFxNkZahPG45ASnpyjNsZYhIRR1kJXzs0xJgzH9BK1KIkITVPRRpNRPdOu0XlgtVsEVV0oE5S19ZltwOhm6ytj6o1ezgJlVN7oHxVAVtSVXoIJwGN-GZZqbbeuCqxagbbX6KIE49TNIXbQ5OX5qz8MRx-D1_7TKMxZkrKQKKpKHvFCpSBEXsaYCwpZBqwUhe9ElFMoWSy44ClkhGDKFU6YH-Sc8ph10MP-7srW32vlGllplytj_D_12smEC0Y5iRNP3h3IdVapQq6srsBu5b8SHrg_AOByMKWFZa7diYswj1MvYAeFe26jjdoe5wTLnRPSOyF3Tsje2-cunnivsvo98mAX0j8nYjkdD-T7OOkNxTSRffYHlumJVg</recordid><startdate>201105</startdate><enddate>201105</enddate><creator>Grant, S. W.</creator><creator>Grayson, A. D.</creator><creator>Purkayastha, D.</creator><creator>Wilson, S. D.</creator><creator>McCollum, C.</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</general><general>Wiley</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201105</creationdate><title>Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair</title><author>Grant, S. W. ; Grayson, A. D. ; Purkayastha, D. ; Wilson, S. D. ; McCollum, C.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3893-1e2ef646de9a77cf50672abba3f7da774262af3576769ab11026e083742c62653</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - mortality</topic><topic>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - surgery</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Blood and lymphatic vessels</topic><topic>Cardiology. Vascular system</topic><topic>Diseases of the aorta</topic><topic>Elective Surgical Procedures - mortality</topic><topic>England - epidemiology</topic><topic>Epidemiologic Methods</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>General aspects</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Public health. Hygiene</topic><topic>Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Grant, S. W.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Grayson, A. D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Purkayastha, D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wilson, S. D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>McCollum, C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>participants in the Vascular Governance North West Programme</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>British journal of surgery</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Grant, S. W.</au><au>Grayson, A. D.</au><au>Purkayastha, D.</au><au>Wilson, S. D.</au><au>McCollum, C.</au><aucorp>participants in the Vascular Governance North West Programme</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair</atitle><jtitle>British journal of surgery</jtitle><addtitle>Br J Surg</addtitle><date>2011-05</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>98</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>652</spage><epage>658</epage><pages>652-658</pages><issn>0007-1323</issn><eissn>1365-2168</eissn><coden>BJSUAM</coden><abstract>Background:
The aim was to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for 30‐day mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair.
Methods:
Data collected prospectively on 2765 consecutive patients undergoing elective open and endovascular AAA repair from September 1999 to October 2009 in the North West of England were split randomly into development (1936 patients) and validation (829) data sets. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify risk factors for 30‐day mortality.
Results:
Ninety‐eight deaths (5·1 per cent) were recorded in the development data set. Variables associated with 30‐day mortality included: increasing age (P = 0·005), female sex (P = 0·002), diabetes (P = 0·029), raised serum creatinine level (P = 0·006), respiratory disease (P = 0·031), antiplatelet medication (P < 0·001) and open surgery (P = 0·002). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicted probability of 30‐day mortality in the development and validation data sets was 0·73 and 0·70 respectively. Observed versus expected 30‐day mortality was 3·2 versus 2·0 per cent (P = 0·272) in low‐risk, 6·1 versus 5·1 per cent (P = 0·671) in medium‐risk and 11·1 versus 10·7 per cent (P = 0·879) in high‐risk patients.
Conclusion:
This multivariable model for predicting 30‐day mortality following elective AAA repair can be used clinically to calculate patient‐specific risk and is useful for case‐mix adjustment. The model predicted well across all risk groups in the validation data set. Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Outcome can be predicted</abstract><cop>Chichester, UK</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</pub><pmid>21412997</pmid><doi>10.1002/bjs.7463</doi><tpages>7</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adult Aged Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - mortality Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - surgery Biological and medical sciences Blood and lymphatic vessels Cardiology. Vascular system Diseases of the aorta Elective Surgical Procedures - mortality England - epidemiology Epidemiologic Methods Epidemiology Female General aspects Humans Male Medical sciences Middle Aged Public health. Hygiene Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine |
| title | Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair |
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