Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly sim...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2010-10, Vol.107 (41), p.17521-17526
Main Authors: O'Neill, Brian C., Dalton, Michael, Fuchs, Regina, Jiang, Leiwen, Pachauri, Shonali, Zigova, Katarina
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Age Distribution
Air Pollution - statistics & numerical data
Carbon dioxide
Carbon Dioxide - analysis
Carbon Dioxide - economics
Carbon dioxide emissions
Climate change
Computer Simulation
Economic growth models
Economic models
Emissions
Environmental impact
Global Warming - statistics & numerical data
Greenhouse gases
Households
Humans
Labor supply
Models, Theoretical
Pollutant emissions
Population Dynamics
Population growth
Social Sciences
Socioeconomic Factors
Trends
Urbanization
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Summary:Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy—economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1004581107