An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width

We present a simple, efficient, process-based forward model of tree-ring growth, called Vaganov–Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite), that requires as inputs only latitude and monthly temperature and precipitation. Simulations of six bristlecone pine ring-width chronologies demonstrate the interpretability of mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2011-06, Vol.36 (11-12), p.2419-2439
Main Authors: Tolwinski-Ward, Susan E., Evans, Michael N., Hughes, Malcolm K., Anchukaitis, Kevin J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Climate science
Climatic data
Climatology
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Data collection
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models
Geophysics/Geodesy
Limited-growth policy
Meteorology
Oceanography
Plant growth
Rain and rainfall
Trees
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Summary:We present a simple, efficient, process-based forward model of tree-ring growth, called Vaganov–Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite), that requires as inputs only latitude and monthly temperature and precipitation. Simulations of six bristlecone pine ring-width chronologies demonstrate the interpretability of model output as an accurate representation of the climatic controls on growth. Ensemble simulations by VS-Lite of two networks of North American ring-width chronologies correlate with observations at higher significance levels on average than simulations formed by regression of ring width on the principal components of the same monthly climate data. VS-Lite retains more skill outside of calibration intervals than does the principal components regression approach. It captures the dominant low- and high-frequency spatiotemporal ring-width signals in the network with an inhomogeneous, multivariate relationship to climate. Because continuous meteorological data are most widely available at monthly temporal resolution, our model extends the set of sites at which forward-modeling studies are possible. Other potential uses of VS-Lite include generation of synthetic ring-width series for pseudo-proxy studies, as a data level model in data assimilation-based climate reconstructions, and for bias estimation in actual ring-width index series.
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-010-0945-5