Stochastic Model of the Potential Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza from an Infected Commercial Broiler Operation in Georgia

The potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza among commercial broiler farms in Georgia, U. S. A., was mathematically modeled. The dynamics of the spread within the first infected flock were estimated using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) deterministic model, and predi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Avian diseases 2010-03, Vol.54 (s1), p.713-719
Main Authors: Dorea, F. C, Vieira, A. R, Hofacre, C, Waldrip, D, Cole, D. J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Animal Husbandry
Animals
Birds
broiler
broiler chickens
Chickens
Crops
deterministic models
disease control
disease detection
Disease models
Disease transmission
disease vectors
farm labor
food animals
Georgia - epidemiology
highly pathogenic avian influenza
highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
Host and Enviromental Factors that Impact Transmission and Mechanisms of Spread and Modeling Avain Influenza Spread in Developing Control Strategies
Host and Environmental Factors that Impact Transmission and Mechanisms of Spread and Modeling Avian Influenza Spread in Developing Control Strategies
Industrial agriculture
Infections
Influenza A virus
Influenza in Birds - epidemiology
Influenza in Birds - transmission
Livestock industries
mathematical models
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical
Poultry
Refuse Disposal
Risk Factors
simulation models
spatial distribution
stochastic model
Stochastic Processes
susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered models
temporal variation
trucks
vertebrate viruses
virus transmission
Viruses
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Description
Summary:The potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza among commercial broiler farms in Georgia, U. S. A., was mathematically modeled. The dynamics of the spread within the first infected flock were estimated using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) deterministic model, and predicted that grower detection of flock infection is most likely 5 days after virus introduction. Off-farm spread of virus was estimated stochastically for this period, predicting a mean range of exposed farms from 0–5, depending on the density of farms in the area. Modeled off-farm spread was most frequently associated with feed trucks (highest daily probability and number of farm visits) and with company personnel or hired help (highest level of bird contact).
ISSN:0005-2086
1938-4351
DOI:10.1637/8706-031609-ResNote.1