Excess mortality monitoring in England and Wales during the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

We present the results from a novel surveillance system for detecting excess all-cause mortality by age group in England and Wales developed during the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 period from April 2009 to March 2010. A Poisson regression model was fitted to age-specific mortality data from 1999...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2011-09, Vol.139 (9), p.1431-1439
Main Authors: HARDELID, P., ANDREWS, N., PEBODY, R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Age groups
Aged
Biological and medical sciences
Child
Child, Preschool
Death
England - epidemiology
Female
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
H1N1 subtype influenza A virus
Humans
Infant
Infections
Influenza
Influenza A virus
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - isolation & purification
Influenza, Human - mortality
Male
Microbiology
Middle Aged
Miscellaneous
Mortality
Older adults
Pandemics
Registration
Surveillance
Virology
Viruses
Wales - epidemiology
Young adults
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Summary:We present the results from a novel surveillance system for detecting excess all-cause mortality by age group in England and Wales developed during the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 period from April 2009 to March 2010. A Poisson regression model was fitted to age-specific mortality data from 1999 to 2008 and used to predict the expected number of weekly deaths in the absence of extreme health events. The system included adjustment for reporting delays. During the pandemic, excess all-cause mortality was seen in the 5–14 years age group, where mortality was flagged as being in excess for 1 week after the second peak in pandemic influenza activity; and in age groups >45 years during a period of very cold weather. This new system has utility for rapidly estimating excess mortality for other acute public health events such as extreme heat or cold weather.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268811000410