The 2010 Elections: Why Did Political Science Forecasts Go Awry?

In President Obama's words, the Democratic Party experienced a “shellacking” in the 2010 elections. In particular, the net loss of 63 House seats was the biggest midterm loss suffered by a party since 1938—the largest in the lifetimes of approximately 93% of the American population.

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PS, political science & politics political science & politics, 2011-04, Vol.44 (2), p.247-250
Main Authors: Brady, David W., Fiorina, Morris P., Wilkins, Arjun S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analytical forecasting
Congressional voting
Election forecasting
Elections
Emissions trading
Forecasting models
Political campaigns
Political elections
Political Parties
Political Science
Prediction
Presidents
SPOTLIGHT
Variable coefficients
Voting
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Description
Summary:In President Obama's words, the Democratic Party experienced a “shellacking” in the 2010 elections. In particular, the net loss of 63 House seats was the biggest midterm loss suffered by a party since 1938—the largest in the lifetimes of approximately 93% of the American population.
ISSN:1049-0965
1537-5935
DOI:10.1017/S1049096511000023