Climate-driven increases in storm frequency simplify kelp forest food webs

Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the annual frequency and severity of extreme weather events during the next century. Here we show that increases in the annual frequency of severe storms lead to a decrease in the diversity and complexity of food webs of giant kelp forests, one of the mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global change biology 2011-08, Vol.17 (8), p.2513-2524
Main Authors: BYRNES, JARRETT E, REED, DANIEL C, CARDINALE, BRADLEY J, CAVANAUGH, KYLE C, HOLBROOK, SALLY J, SCHMITT, RUSSELL J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal and plant ecology
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Biodiversity
Biological and medical sciences
Climate change
climate models
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
disturbance
Earth, ocean, space
ecosystems
equations
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Food chains
food web
food webs
Forests
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General aspects
habitats
kelp forest
macroalgae
Meteorology
network theory
prediction
statistical models
Storms
structural equation modeling
Terrestrial ecosystems
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Summary:Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the annual frequency and severity of extreme weather events during the next century. Here we show that increases in the annual frequency of severe storms lead to a decrease in the diversity and complexity of food webs of giant kelp forests, one of the most productive habitats on Earth. We demonstrate this by linking natural variation in storms with measured changes in kelp forest food web structure in the Santa Barbara Channel using structural equation modeling (SEM). We then match predictions from statistical models to results from a multiyear kelp removal experiment designed to simulate frequent large storms. Both SEM models and experiments agree: if large storms remain at their current annual frequency (roughly one major kelp-removing storm every 3.5 years), periodic storms help maintain the complexity of kelp forest food webs. However, if large storms increase in annual frequency and begin to occur year after year, kelp forest food webs become less diverse and complex as species go locally extinct. The loss of complexity occurs primarily due to decreases in the diversity and complexity of higher trophic levels. Our findings demonstrate that shifts in climate-driven disturbances that affect foundation species are likely to have impacts that cascade through entire ecosystems.
ISSN:1354-1013
1365-2486
DOI:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02409.x