Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams

• Published in: Risk analysis 2011-06, Vol.31 (6), p.1000-1015
• Main Authors: Serrano-Lombillo, Armando, Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio, de Membrillera-Ortuño, Manuel G., Altarejos-García, Luis
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Case studies; Dam safety; Dams; Equivalence; Failure modes; Generalization; Mathematical models; Methodology; Probability theory; quantitative risk analysis; Risk; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; risk evaluation; Risk management; Studies; Systematization; systems of dams; Trees
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01547.x

In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study.