Avian–human influenza epidemic model

A mathematical model is proposed to interpret the spread of avian influenza from the bird world to the human world. Our mathematical model warns that two types of the outbreak of avian influenza may occur if the humans do not prevent the spread of avian influenza. Moreover, it suggests that we canno...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Mathematical biosciences 2007-05, Vol.207 (1), p.1-25
Main Authors: Iwami, Shingo, Takeuchi, Yasuhiro, Liu, Xianning
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Avian influenza
Birds
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Disease Outbreaks - veterinary
Endemic
Epidemics
Humans
Influenza A virus - growth & development
Influenza in Birds - epidemiology
Influenza in Birds - prevention & control
Influenza in Birds - transmission
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Influenza, Human - prevention & control
Influenza, Human - transmission
Models, Biological
Mutation
Pandemic
SI model
SIR model
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Summary:A mathematical model is proposed to interpret the spread of avian influenza from the bird world to the human world. Our mathematical model warns that two types of the outbreak of avian influenza may occur if the humans do not prevent the spread of avian influenza. Moreover, it suggests that we cannot feel relieved although the total infected humans are kept at low level. In order to prevent spread of avian influenza in the human world, we must take the measures not only for the birds infected with avian influenza to exterminate but also for the humans infected with mutant avian influenza to quarantine when mutant avian influenza has already occurred. In particular, the latter measure is shown to be important to stop the second pandemic of avian influenza.
ISSN:0025-5564
1879-3134
DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.08.001