Invasion of infectious diseases in finite homogeneous populations

We consider the initial invasion of an infectious disease in a finite, homogeneous population. Methodology for evaluating the basic reproduction number, R 0, and the probability mass function of secondary infections is presented. The impact of finite population size, and infectious period distributi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of theoretical biology 2011-11, Vol.289, p.83-89
Main Author: Ross, J.V.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Basic Reproduction Number
Biological Sciences
Communicable Diseases - epidemiology
Communicable Diseases - transmission
disease models
disease transmission
Humans
Infectious disease
infectious diseases
Invasion
Markov chain
Markov Chains
Models, Biological
Population Density
population size
probability
SIR
SIS
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Summary:We consider the initial invasion of an infectious disease in a finite, homogeneous population. Methodology for evaluating the basic reproduction number, R 0, and the probability mass function of secondary infections is presented. The impact of finite population size, and infectious period distribution (between exponential, two-phase gamma, and constant), is assessed. Implications for infectious disease invasion and estimation of infectious disease model and parameters from data of secondary infections by initially infected individuals in naive, finite, homogeneous populations are reported. As any individual interacts with a finite number of contacts during their infectious period, these results are important to the study of infectious disease dynamics. ► We consider invasion of an infectious disease in a finite, homogeneous population. ► Efficient methodology for evaluating R 0 and offspring distribution is presented. ► The impact of finite population size and infectious period distribution is assessed. ► Implications for disease invasion and model estimation are reported.
ISSN:0022-5193
1095-8541
DOI:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.035