Effects of climate change on moose populations: Exploring the response horizon through biometric and systems models

• Published in: Ecological modelling 2011-09, Vol.222 (18), p.3355-3365
• Main Author: Rempel, Robert S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Alces alces; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biological and medical sciences; Biometric model; carrying capacity; climate; climate change; Climate change simulation; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects. Techniques; heat stress; Meteorology; Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...); Moose population dynamics; mortality; Parasite; parasites; parasitoses; planning; predation; Rangifer tarandus caribou; recruitment; Stella; Systems model; Wolf predation; wolves
• ISSN: 0304-3800; 1872-7026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.012

► I modeled moose population dynamics using biometric and systems modeling approaches. ► Climate change model scenarios predict a shift in moose distribution to the north. ► Predicted declines are a result of lower carrying capacity and higher heat stress, parasite loads and wolf predation. ► The indirect effect of parasites on decreased recruitment may have greater impact on moose than increased death rate. ► Conservation planning for woodland caribou populations should account for possible increases in moose and wolf populations. Interest in the response of moose to climate change has increased because of the potential role they play in the conservation of woodland caribou, and threatened loss to recreational and economic opportunities. The objective of this study is to develop a plausible, parsimonious, systems-level model of moose population dynamics that will be useful in exploring the response of moose populations to climate projections. The study begins with a statistical model of moose carrying capacity, which is then integrated into a systems-level model that predicts moose density based on explicit causal factors. Scenario analysis was conducted using a variety of assumptions concerning biotic and abiotic interactions, and under the A2 climate scenario all model scenarios predict a decline of moose density at the southern limits of the Ontario distribution and an increase at the northern extents. Predicted declines are a result of lower carrying capacity and higher heat stress, parasite loads and wolf predation. Given the sensitivity of the model to density-dependent factors, the indirect effect of parasites on decreased recruitment may have greater impact on moose than the direct effect of increased death rate. Results indicate that conservation planning for woodland caribou populations should account for possible increases in moose and wolf populations.