Spatio-temporal patterns of diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico

Diarrhoeal mortality rates in Mexican children dramatically declined during the 1980s and 1990s, concomitant with a temporal shift in peak deaths from summer to autumn–winter. The spatial dynamics of these patterns have not previously been studied. We first describe the seasonal features of paediatr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2012-01, Vol.140 (1), p.91-99
Main Authors: ALONSO, W. J., ACUÑA-SOTO, R., GIGLIO, R., NUCKOLS, J., LEYK, S., SCHUCK-PAIM, C., VIBOUD, C., MILLER, M. A., McCORMICK, B. J. J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological and medical sciences
Child
Child, Preschool
Children
Climate
Climate models
Diarrhea
Diarrhea - epidemiology
Diarrhea - mortality
Epidemiology
Etiology
Fourier Analysis
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Infectious diseases
Mexico - epidemiology
Microbiology
Mortality
Pathogens
Precipitation
Rain
Retrospective Studies
Rotavirus
Seasonal variations
Seasons
Spatio-temporal patterns
Statistics, Nonparametric
Temperature
Viruses
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Summary:Diarrhoeal mortality rates in Mexican children dramatically declined during the 1980s and 1990s, concomitant with a temporal shift in peak deaths from summer to autumn–winter. The spatial dynamics of these patterns have not previously been studied. We first describe the seasonal features of paediatric diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico as a whole, then across individual states. While no geographical gradients in the magnitude of diarrhoeal mortality rates have been detected in recent years, we identified a distinct spatial pattern in the timing of peak mortality rate. In the 1980s the summer peak mortality was earliest around Mexico's capital and later in states to the southeast and northwest. Our results suggest that the direction and timing of those annual waves are related to the mean monthly precipitation and mean daily temperature. This pattern has disintegrated in recent years as the summer peak has diminished.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268811000562