Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040

• Published in: Natural resources forum 2011-02, Vol.35 (1), p.49-62
• Main Authors: Arora, Salil, Vyas, Anant, Johnson, Larry R.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; Applied sciences; Atmospheric pollution; Automobiles; Carbon dioxide; Carbon emissions; Crude oil; Economic data; economic growth; Emissions; Energy; energy demand; Energy economics; Energy policy; Environmental effects; Exact sciences and technology; Fossil fuels and derived products; Fuel economy standards; General, economic and professional studies; Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction; Highways; households; India; Motorways; Natural resources; Oil; Oil demand; Pollution; Pollution control; Pollution sources. Measurement results; Road transportation and traffic; Supply & demand; Transportation; Transports; Vehicles
• ISSN: 0165-0203; 1477-8947
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01341.x

This paper presents projections of motor vehicles, oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for India through the year 2040. The populations of highway vehicles and two‐wheelers are projected under three different scenarios on the basis of economic growth and average household size in India. The results show that by 2040, the number of highway vehicles in India would be 206‐309 million. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a set of nine scenarios arising out of three vehicle‐growth and three fuel‐economy scenarios. The combined effects of vehicle‐growth and fuel‐economy scenarios, together with the change in annual vehicle usage, result in a projected demand in 2040 by the transportation sector in India of 404‐719 million metric tons (8.5‐15.1 million barrels per day). The corresponding annual CO2 emissions are projected to be 1.2‐2.2 billion metric tons.