Forecasting Provincial Business Indicator Variables and Forecast Evaluation

This paper evaluates a number of univariate and multivariate time-series forecasting models of selected indicator variables for three Canadian provinces: Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba. The out of sample forecasts from these models are compared not only with themselves but with common indica...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Urban studies (Edinburgh, Scotland) Scotland), 1993-12, Vol.30 (10), p.1763-1773
Main Authors: Talwar, Prem P., Chambers, Edward J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alberta
Bgi / Prodig
British Columbia
Business forecasts
Business indicators
Canada
Economic forecasting
Economic forecasting models
Economic indicators
Economic models
Economic performance
Employment
Employment forecasting
Evaluation
Forecasting
Forecasting models
Forecasting techniques
Galilean satellites
General methodology
Housing starts
Manitoba
Regional economics
Statistical and stochastic methods
Statistical forecasts
Time series
Time series forecasting
Workforce
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Summary:This paper evaluates a number of univariate and multivariate time-series forecasting models of selected indicator variables for three Canadian provinces: Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba. The out of sample forecasts from these models are compared not only with themselves but with common indicators from the quarterly provincial forecast model of the Conference Board of Canada. The concepts of directional accuracy, the conditional efficiency, and the robust regression are used in evaluating the forecasts. In most cases, the strategy of combining forecasts produced superior results to those given by the Conference Board of Canada.
ISSN:0042-0980
1360-063X
DOI:10.1080/00420989320081711