Hierarchical approach to forecasting recurrent solar wind streams

• Published in: Solar system research 2011-12, Vol.45 (6), p.546-556
• Main Authors: Shugay, Yu. S., Veselovsky, I. S., Seaton, D. B., Berghmans, D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Astronomy; Astrophysics and Astroparticles; Astrophysics and Cosmology; Forecasting; Observations and Techniques; Physics; Physics and Astronomy; Planetology; Solar physics; Spacecraft; Sun; Sunspots; Wavelengths
• ISSN: 0038-0946; 1608-3423
• DOI: 10.1134/S0038094611060086

The hierarchical approach to predicting quasi-stationary, high-speed solar wind (SW) streams is described. This approach integrates various types of data into a single forecasting system by means of an ensemble of experts. The input data included the daily values of the coronal hole areas, which were calculated from the ultraviolet images of the Sun, and the speed of the SW streams during the previous solar rotations. The coronal hole areas were calculated from the images taken by the SWAP instrument aboard the PROBA2 satellite in the spectral interval centered at a wavelength of 17.4 nm and by the AIA instrument aboard the SDO spacecraft in the interval of wavelengths centered at 19.3 and 17.1 nm. The forecast was based on the data for 2010, corresponding to the rising phase of the 24th solar cycle. On the first hierarchical level, a few simple model estimates were obtained for the speed of the SW streams from the input data of each type. On the second level of hierarchy, the final 3 day ahead forecast of the SW velocity was formulated on the basis of the obtained estimates. The proposed hierarchical approach improves the accuracy of forecasting the SW velocity. In addition, in such a method of prediction, the data gaps in the records of one instrument do not crucially affect the final result of forecasting of the system as a whole.