Urban growth in China: past, prospect, and its impacts

Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Population and environment 2012-03, Vol.33 (2/3), p.137-160
Main Authors: Cao, G.-Y., Chen, G., Pang, L.-H., Zheng, X.-Y., Nilsson, S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
China
Cities
Counter urbanization
Demographics
Demography
Economic reform
Education
Employment
Environment
Environmental impact
GDP
Globalization
Gross Domestic Product
Internal migration
Labor force
Labour force
Level of education
Migration
Original Paper
Population
Population dynamics
Population Economics
Population growth
Population migration
Public Health
Rapid urbanization
Rural areas
Rural economics
Rural populations
Social impact
Social Sciences
Sociology
Studies
Sustainability
Sustainable development
Sustainable urbanism
Trends
Urban areas
Urban development
Urban growth
Urban populations
Urban sprawl
Urbanization
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Summary:Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration in rural and urban regions, we estimate the magnitude of urbanization in China through 2030 and examine some major associated sustainability issues. Results indicate that: (1) for a range of assumptions, China's urban population will nearly double from 2000 to 2030; (2) the labor force will constitute a larger share of total population in urban areas than rural due to internal migration of younger workers—this appears particularly true for the mega-urban metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai; (3) rural populations will experience more aging than urban; and (4) level of education among China's rural labor force will remain low, which could pressure China's industrial structural transition from an agricultural to a service-based economy.
ISSN:0199-0039
1573-7810
DOI:10.1007/s11111-011-0140-6