Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2011-12, Vol.109 (Suppl 1), p.445-463
Main Authors: Westerling, A. L., Bryant, B. P., Preisler, H. K., Holmes, T. P., Hidalgo, H. G., Das, T., Shrestha, S. R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric research
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Combustion
Density
Dynamic tests
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Ecosystems
Emission analysis
Emissions
Environmental impact
Fire protection
Fluid dynamics
Footprints
Forest & brush fires
Global climate
Housing
Hydroclimate
Hydrodynamics
National parks
Pathways
Population growth
Precipitation
Wildfires
Wildland-urban interface
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CM3, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 and National Center for Atmospheric Research PCM1); three scenarios for future population growth and development footprint; and two thresholds for defining the wildland-urban interface relative to housing density. Results were assessed for three 30-year time periods centered on 2020, 2050, and 2085, relative to a 30-year reference period centered on 1975. Increases in wildfire burned area are anticipated for most scenarios, although the range of outcomes is large and increases with time. The increase in wildfire burned area associated with the higher emissions pathway (SRES A2) is substantial, with increases statewide ranging from 36% to 74% by 2085, and increases exceeding 100% in much of the forested areas of Northern California in every SRES A2 scenario by 2085.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9