Asset Bubbles, Domino Effects and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis

Credit market imperfections have been blamed for the depth and persistence of the Great Depression in the USA. Could similar mechanisms have played a role in ending the East Asian miracle? After a brief account of the nature of the recent crises, the authors use a model of highly levered credit-cons...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Policy File 1998
Main Authors: Edison, Hali J, Luangaram, Pongsak, Miller, Marcus
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
Banking/Finance
Economic policy
Government
International trade
International/Economic development
The Federal Reserve Board
Online Access:Request full text
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Summary:Credit market imperfections have been blamed for the depth and persistence of the Great Depression in the USA. Could similar mechanisms have played a role in ending the East Asian miracle? After a brief account of the nature of the recent crises, the authors use a model of highly levered credit-constrained firms due to Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) to explore this question. As applied to land-holding property companies, it predicts greatly amplified responses to financial shocks -- like the ending of the land price bubble or the fall of the exchange rate. The initial fall in asset values is followed by the "knock-on" effects of the scramble for liquidity as companies sell land to satisfy their collateral requirements -- causing land prices to fall further. This could lead to financial collapse where -- like falling dominoes -- prudent firms are brought down by imprudent firms. Key to avoiding collapse is the nature of financial stabilization policy; in a crisis, temporary financing can prevent illiquidity becoming insolvency and launching 'lifeboats' can do the same. But the vulnerability of financial systems like those in East Asia to short-term foreign currency exposure suggests that preventive measures are also required.