Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median CPI. Unlike previous research, we evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric trimmed-means u...

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Published in:Policy File 2012
Main Authors: Meyer, Brent, Venkatu, Guhan
Format: Report
Language:English
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Economic policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
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Venkatu, Guhan
description This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median CPI. Unlike previous research, we evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric trimmed-means using a well-known equality of prediction test. We find that there is a large swath of trimmed-means that have statistically indistinguishable performance. Also, while the swath of statistically similar trims changes slightly over different sample periods, it always includes the median CPI--an extreme trim that holds conceptual and computational advantages. We conclude with a simple forecasting exercise that highlights the advantage of the median CPI relative to other standard inflation measures.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
title Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle
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