Deep Decarbonization as a Risk Management Challenge

Deep decarbonization---reducing net human greenhouse gas emissions to zero in the 21st century---is best pursued as a risk management challenge. This Perspective explores three concepts that are particularly important to the implementation of risk management for deep decarbonization---risk governanc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Policy File 2018
Main Authors: Lempert, Robert J, Trujillo, Horacio R
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
Environment
Government
RAND Corporation
Science/Technology
Social conditions & trends
Online Access:Request full text
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Summary:Deep decarbonization---reducing net human greenhouse gas emissions to zero in the 21st century---is best pursued as a risk management challenge. This Perspective explores three concepts that are particularly important to the implementation of risk management for deep decarbonization---risk governance, complexity, and robustness. Risk governance provides a useful framework for organizing thinking and acting in pursuit of deep decarbonization, because it applies the principles of governance to the identification, assessment, management and communication of risks in a diverse and decentralized society. Complex systems consist of many elements interacting in ever-shifting, often disordered ways. Such systems often respond nonlinearly to small perturbations, and their overall behavior can be understood but not predicted. Decarbonization presents a complex challenge, rather than a complicated one. This distinction proves important because managing a complex system is fundamentally different from managing a complicated one, and often offers more opportunities for small interventions to result in significant change. Robustness provides a useful concept for managing the complexity of the decarbonization challenge. Seeking robust strategies involves considering a multiplicity of plausible futures, evaluating how strategies perform over a wide range of such futures, and often employing adaptive pathways that adjust over time to perform well over many futures.