Firm expectations and economic activity

We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is 15...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Policy File 2019
Main Authors: Enders, Zeno, Hunnekes, Franziska, Muller, Gernot
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
CESifo Group Munich
Economic policy
Industry
Online Access:Request full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
cited_by
cites
container_end_page
container_issue
container_start_page
container_title Policy File
container_volume
creator Enders, Zeno
Hunnekes, Franziska
Muller, Gernot
description We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is 15 percentage points higher for optimistic (pessimistic) firms than for neutral firms. Optimistic firms are also more likely to raise prices. In a second step, we find optimism and pessimism to matter even if they turn out to be incorrect ex-post. Lastly, we quantify the contribution of incorrect optimism and pessimism to aggregate fluctuations.
format report
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>proquest_AOXKD</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_reports_2234455723</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2234455723</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-proquest_reports_22344557233</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNrjZFB3yyzKVUitKEhNLkksyczPK1ZIzEtRSE3Oz8vPzUxWSEwuySzLLKnkYWBNS8wpTuWF0twMSm6uIc4eugVF-YWlqcUl8UWpBflFJcXxRkbGJiampuZGxsZEKQIAOF8qFA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>report</recordtype><pqid>2234455723</pqid></control><display><type>report</type><title>Firm expectations and economic activity</title><source>Policy File Index</source><creator>Enders, Zeno ; Hunnekes, Franziska ; Muller, Gernot</creator><creatorcontrib>Enders, Zeno ; Hunnekes, Franziska ; Muller, Gernot</creatorcontrib><description>We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is 15 percentage points higher for optimistic (pessimistic) firms than for neutral firms. Optimistic firms are also more likely to raise prices. In a second step, we find optimism and pessimism to matter even if they turn out to be incorrect ex-post. Lastly, we quantify the contribution of incorrect optimism and pessimism to aggregate fluctuations.</description><language>eng</language><publisher>CESifo Group Munich</publisher><subject>CESifo Group Munich ; Economic policy ; Industry</subject><ispartof>Policy File, 2019</ispartof><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2234455723?pq-origsite=primo$$EHTML$$P50$$Gproquest$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>780,784,4487,43746,72866,72871</link.rule.ids><linktorsrc>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2234455723?pq-origsite=primo$$EView_record_in_ProQuest$$FView_record_in_$$GProQuest</linktorsrc></links><search><creatorcontrib>Enders, Zeno</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hunnekes, Franziska</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Muller, Gernot</creatorcontrib><title>Firm expectations and economic activity</title><title>Policy File</title><description>We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is 15 percentage points higher for optimistic (pessimistic) firms than for neutral firms. Optimistic firms are also more likely to raise prices. In a second step, we find optimism and pessimism to matter even if they turn out to be incorrect ex-post. Lastly, we quantify the contribution of incorrect optimism and pessimism to aggregate fluctuations.</description><subject>CESifo Group Munich</subject><subject>Economic policy</subject><subject>Industry</subject><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>report</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>report</recordtype><sourceid>ABWIU</sourceid><sourceid>AFVLS</sourceid><sourceid>ALSLI</sourceid><sourceid>AOXKD</sourceid><sourceid>DPSOV</sourceid><recordid>eNrjZFB3yyzKVUitKEhNLkksyczPK1ZIzEtRSE3Oz8vPzUxWSEwuySzLLKnkYWBNS8wpTuWF0twMSm6uIc4eugVF-YWlqcUl8UWpBflFJcXxRkbGJiampuZGxsZEKQIAOF8qFA</recordid><startdate>20190401</startdate><enddate>20190401</enddate><creator>Enders, Zeno</creator><creator>Hunnekes, Franziska</creator><creator>Muller, Gernot</creator><general>CESifo Group Munich</general><scope>ABWIU</scope><scope>AFVLS</scope><scope>ALSLI</scope><scope>AOXKD</scope><scope>DPSOV</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20190401</creationdate><title>Firm expectations and economic activity</title><author>Enders, Zeno ; Hunnekes, Franziska ; Muller, Gernot</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-proquest_reports_22344557233</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>reports</rsrctype><prefilter>reports</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2019</creationdate><topic>CESifo Group Munich</topic><topic>Economic policy</topic><topic>Industry</topic><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Enders, Zeno</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hunnekes, Franziska</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Muller, Gernot</creatorcontrib><collection>Social Science Premium Collection</collection><collection>Policy File Index</collection><collection>Politics Collection</collection></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext_linktorsrc</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Enders, Zeno</au><au>Hunnekes, Franziska</au><au>Muller, Gernot</au><format>book</format><genre>unknown</genre><ristype>RPRT</ristype><atitle>Firm expectations and economic activity</atitle><jtitle>Policy File</jtitle><date>2019-04-01</date><risdate>2019</risdate><abstract>We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is 15 percentage points higher for optimistic (pessimistic) firms than for neutral firms. Optimistic firms are also more likely to raise prices. In a second step, we find optimism and pessimism to matter even if they turn out to be incorrect ex-post. Lastly, we quantify the contribution of incorrect optimism and pessimism to aggregate fluctuations.</abstract><pub>CESifo Group Munich</pub></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext_linktorsrc
identifier
ispartof Policy File, 2019
issn
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_reports_2234455723
source Policy File Index
subjects CESifo Group Munich
Economic policy
Industry
title Firm expectations and economic activity
url http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-14T11%3A53%3A57IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_AOXKD&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:book&rft.genre=unknown&rft.atitle=Firm%20expectations%20and%20economic%20activity&rft.jtitle=Policy%20File&rft.au=Enders,%20Zeno&rft.date=2019-04-01&rft_id=info:doi/&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_AOXKD%3E2234455723%3C/proquest_AOXKD%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-proquest_reports_22344557233%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2234455723&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true