How Low Will Cotton Acres Go?

For all the headlines about trade disputes and weak demand, production and supply will still be major influences on the 2020 U.S. cotton market. [...]when the winter-time cotton futures price was high relative to corn prices in 2018 and 2019, the result was over 13 million planted acres of cotton (F...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Corn and Soybean Digest 2019-12
Main Author: Sahs, Roger
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abandonment
Agricultural production
Commodity futures
Corn
Cotton
Cotton trade
El Nino
Farmers
Forecasts and trends
Futures
International trade
La Nina
Prices
Trade disputes
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Summary:For all the headlines about trade disputes and weak demand, production and supply will still be major influences on the 2020 U.S. cotton market. [...]when the winter-time cotton futures price was high relative to corn prices in 2018 and 2019, the result was over 13 million planted acres of cotton (Figure 1). PLANTINGS History suggests that when corn futures prices are higher in relation to cotton futures, as they are currently, we could expect cotton planted acres between nine and ten million acres (see Figure 1). Since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is not currently forecasting either El Niño or La Niña conditions going in to 2020, we can probably expect average yield and abandonment.
ISSN:1544-1644