Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator

We use advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act as an indicator of current and imminent labor market conditions. We have constructed a database of establishment-level notices starting in 1990 by scraping state government websites, contacting sta...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economic commentary (Cleveland) 2019-12 (2019-21), p.1-5
Main Authors: Krolikowski, Pawel M., Lunsford, Kurt G., Yang, Meifeng
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Displaced workers
Economic conditions
Economic indicators
Economic models
Employees
Employers
Employment
Labor market
Layoffs
Local government
Shutdowns
Unemployment insurance
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Summary:We use advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act as an indicator of current and imminent labor market conditions. We have constructed a database of establishment-level notices starting in 1990 by scraping state government websites, contacting state officials, and retrieving historical data. We find evidence that these notices, aggregated to the national level, lead other prominent labor market indicators, such as initial unemployment insurance claims, the change in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The lead relationship seems strongest at one month with economically meaningful magnitudes. Most recently, WARN data suggest a slight increase in labor market slack.
ISSN:0428-1276
2163-3738
DOI:10.26509/frbc-ec-201921