AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks

• Published in: Policy File 2024
• Main Authors: Drexel, Bill, Withers, Caleb
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Subjects: Artificial intelligence; Biological & chemical terrorism; Biological & chemical weapons; National security; Threat assessment

Not long after COVID-19 gave the world a glimpse of the catastrophic potential of biological events, experts began warning that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) could augur a world of bioterrorism, unprecedented superviruses, and novel targeted bioweapons. These dire warnings have risen to the highest levels of industry and government, from the CEOs of the world's leading AI labs raising alarms about new technical capabilities for would-be bioterrorists, to Vice President Kamala Harris’s concern that AI-enabled bioweapons “could endanger the very existence of humanity.”1 If true, such developments would expose the United States to unprecedented catastrophic threats well beyond COVID-19’s scope of destruction. But assessing the degree to which these concerns are warranted—and what to do about them—requires weighing a range of complex factors, including: The history and current state of American biosecurity. The diverse ways in which AI could alter existing biosecurity risks. Which emerging technical AI capabilities would impact these risks. Where interventions today are needed. This report considers these factors to provide policymakers with a broad understanding of the evolving intersection of AI and biotechnology, along with actionable recommendations to curb the worst risks to national security from biological threats.