Ozone Air Quality over North America: Part II-An Analysis of Trend Detection and Attribution Techniques

Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O 3 air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific clima-tological an...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995) 2001-02, Vol.51 (2), p.283-306
Main Authors: Porter, P. Steven, Rao, S. Trivikrama, Zurbenko, Igor G., Dunker, Alan M., Wolff, George T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air Pollutants - analysis
Applied sciences
Atmospheric pollution
Chemical composition and interactions. Ionic interactions and processes
Climate
Earth, ocean, space
Environmental Monitoring - methods
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Meteorology
North America
Oxidants, Photochemical - analysis
Ozone - analysis
Policy Making
Pollutants physicochemistry study: properties, effects, reactions, transport and distribution
Pollution
Public Policy
Weather
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Summary:Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O 3 air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific clima-tological and anthropogenic forcings, are instrumental to this assessment. Detection and attribution are difficult because changes in pollutant concentrations of interest to policymakers may be much smaller than natural variations due to weather and climate. In addition, there are considerable differences in reported trends seemingly based on similar statistical methods and databases. Differences arise from the variety of techniques used to reduce nontrend variation in time series, including mitigating the effects of meteorology and the variety of metrics used to track changes. In this paper, we review the trend assessment techniques being used in the air pollution field and discuss their strengths and limitations in discerning and attributing changes in O 3 to emission control policies.
ISSN:1096-2247
2162-2906
DOI:10.1080/10473289.2001.10464261