Human-Modified Temperatures Induce Species Changes: Joint Attribution

Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed dire...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2005-05, Vol.102 (21), p.7465-7469
Main Authors: Root, Terry L., MacMynowski, Dena P., Mastrandrea, Michael D., Schneider, Stephen H.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Climate change
Climate models
Computer Simulation
Correlation coefficients
Data models
Ecosystem
Global climate models
Greenhouse Effect
Human Activities
Human influences
International environmental cooperation
Models, Theoretical
Monte Carlo Method
Phenology
Physical Sciences
Planetary temperature
Species Specificity
Temperature
Temperature effects
Temperature scales
Time Factors
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Summary:Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0502286102