Human plague in the USA: the importance of regional and local climate

A 56-year time series of human plague cases (Yersinia pestis) in the western United States was used to explore the effects of climatic patterns on plague levels. We found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), together with previous plague levels and above-normal temperatures, explained much of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Biology letters (2005) 2008-12, Vol.4 (6), p.737-740
Main Authors: Ben Ari, Tamara, Gershunov, Alexander, Gage, Kenneth L, Snäll, Tord, Ettestad, Paul, Kausrud, Kyrre L, Stenseth, Nils Chr
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bubonic Plague
Climate
Hot Temperature
Humans
Life Sciences
Models, Statistical
Northwestern United States - epidemiology
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Pathogen Biology
Plague - epidemiology
Southwestern United States - epidemiology
Western United States
Yersinia pestis
Yersinia pestis - physiology
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Summary:A 56-year time series of human plague cases (Yersinia pestis) in the western United States was used to explore the effects of climatic patterns on plague levels. We found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), together with previous plague levels and above-normal temperatures, explained much of the plague variability. We propose that the PDO's impact on plague is conveyed via its effect on precipitation and temperature and the effect of precipitation and temperature on plague hosts and vectors: warmer and wetter climate leading to increased plague activity and thus an increased number of human cases. Our analysis furthermore provides insights into the consistency of plague mechanisms at larger scales.
ISSN:1744-9561
1744-957X
DOI:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0363