Recent oceanic changes in the Arctic in the context of long-term observations

This synthesis study assesses recent changes of Arctic Ocean physical parameters using a unique collection of observations from the 2000s and places them in the context of long-term climate trends and variability. Our analysis demonstrates that the 2000s were an exceptional decade with extraordinary...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecological applications 2013-12, Vol.23 (8), p.1745-1764
Main Authors: Polyakov, Igor V, Bhatt, Uma S, Walsh, John E, Abrahamsen, E. Povl, Pnyushkov, Andrey V, Wassmann, Paul F
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arctic
Arctic Regions
Basins
climate
Climate Change
Climate models
Environmental Monitoring
Fresh Water
Geofag: 450
Geosciences: 450
Ice
Marine
Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400
Mathematics and natural science: 400
Moorings
Oceanography: 452
Oceans
Oceans and Seas
Oseanografi: 452
Sea water
Seas
Surface water
Temperature
Time Factors
Trajectory of the Arctic
VDP
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Summary:This synthesis study assesses recent changes of Arctic Ocean physical parameters using a unique collection of observations from the 2000s and places them in the context of long-term climate trends and variability. Our analysis demonstrates that the 2000s were an exceptional decade with extraordinary upper Arctic Ocean freshening and intermediate Atlantic water warming. We note that the Arctic Ocean is characterized by large amplitude multi-decadal variability in addition to a long-term trend, making the link of observed changes to climate drivers problematic. However, the exceptional magnitude of recent high-latitude changes (not only oceanic, but also ice and atmospheric) strongly suggests that these recent changes signify a potentially irreversible shift of the Arctic Ocean to a new climate state. These changes have important implications for the Arctic Ocean's marine ecosystem, especially those components that are dependent on sea ice or that have temperature-dependent sensitivities or thresholds. Addressing these and other questions requires a carefully orchestrated combination of sustained multidisciplinary observations and advanced modeling.
ISSN:1051-0761
1939-5582
DOI:10.1890/11-0902.1