False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment

An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent's uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences physical, and engineering sciences, 2015-11, Vol.373 (2055), p.20140453
Main Authors: Parker, Wendy S., Risbey, James S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate Change
Probability
Surprise
Uncertainty
Unknown Unknowns
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Summary:An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent's uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection with the latter, we respond to the objection that it is impossible to account for the risk of genuine surprises. After outlining some steps that both scientists and the bodies who commission uncertainty assessments can take to help avoid these pitfalls, we explain why striving for faithfulness and completeness is important.
ISSN:1364-503X
1471-2962
DOI:10.1098/rsta.2014.0453