Estimating Workforce-Related Economic Impact of a Pandemic on the Commonwealth of Virginia

A pandemic outbreak is one of the major planning scenarios considered by emergency-preparedness policymakers. The consequences of a pandemic can significantly affect and disrupt a large spectrum of workforce sectors in today's society. This paper, motivated by the impact of a pandemic, extends...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on systems, man and cybernetics. Part A, Systems and humans man and cybernetics. Part A, Systems and humans, 2010-03, Vol.40 (2), p.301-305
Main Authors: Orsi, Mark J., Santos, Joost R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bioterrorism
Computer security
Context modeling
Disasters
Diseases
Economic interdependence
Economics
Estimating
Influenza
Infrastructure
inoperability input-output modeling
Mathematical model
Mathematical models
Matlab
pandemic
Pandemics
Perturbation methods
Proportional control
Resilience
Risk management
Simulation
Studies
Systems engineering and theory
Virginia
Workforce
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Summary:A pandemic outbreak is one of the major planning scenarios considered by emergency-preparedness policymakers. The consequences of a pandemic can significantly affect and disrupt a large spectrum of workforce sectors in today's society. This paper, motivated by the impact of a pandemic, extends the formulation of the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM) to account for economic perturbations resulting from such an event, which creates a time-varying and probabilistic inoperability to the workforce. A pandemic is a unique disaster, because the majority of its direct impacts are workforce related and it does not create significant direct impact to infrastructure. In light of this factor, this paper first develops a method of translating unavailable workforce into a measure of economic-sector inoperability. While previous formulations of the DIIM only allowed for the specification of an initial perturbation, this paper incorporates the fact that a pandemic can cause direct effects to the workforce over the recovery period. Given the uncertainty associated with the impact of a pandemic, this paper develops a simulation framework to account for the possible variations in realizations of the pandemic. The enhancements to the DIIM formulation are incorporated into a MatLab program and then applied to a case study to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
ISSN:1083-4427
2168-2216
1558-2426
2168-2232
DOI:10.1109/TSMCA.2009.2033032