How heterogeneity in density dependence affects disease spread: when lifestyle matters

People's lifestyles play a major role in disease risk. Some employment sectors and transport modes involve fixed exposures regardless of community size, while in other settings exposure tracks with population density. MERS-CoV, a coronavirus discovered in Saudi Arabia in 2012 closely related to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of biological dynamics 2023-12, Vol.17 (1), p.2242389-2242389
Main Authors: Kribs, Christopher M., Alharbi, Mohammed H.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Case studies
contact rate
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Density dependence
Disease spread
Disease transmission
epidemic outbreak
Middle East respiratory syndrome
Outbreaks
Population density
Respiratory diseases
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Summary:People's lifestyles play a major role in disease risk. Some employment sectors and transport modes involve fixed exposures regardless of community size, while in other settings exposure tracks with population density. MERS-CoV, a coronavirus discovered in Saudi Arabia in 2012 closely related to those causing SARS and COVID-19, appears to need extended contact time for transmission, making some segments of a community at greater risk than others. We model mathematically how heterogeneity in contact rate structure impacts disease spread, using as a case study a MERS outbreak in two Saudi Arabian communities. We divide the at-risk population into segments with exposure rates either independent of population density or density-dependent. Analysis shows disease spread is minimized for intermediate size populations with a limited proportion of individuals in the density-independent group. In the case study, the high proportion of density-independent exposure may explain the historical outbreak's extinction in the larger city.
ISSN:1751-3758
1751-3766
DOI:10.1080/17513758.2023.2242389