Fire management now and in the future: Will today's solutions still apply tomorrow?

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2024-12, Vol.957, p.177863, Article 177863
• Main Authors: Marshall, Erica, Marcot, Bruce G., Parkins, Kate, Penman, Trent D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayesian decision network; Climate change; Cost-effectiveness; Fire regimes; Future fire; Wildfire risk
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177863

Climate change and fire management actions are the two key drivers of fire regime changes now and into the future. The predicted effects of these drivers vary between regions and global climate projections; however, it is expected that fire regimes globally are likely to intensify. Increased wildfire extent, frequency and severity mean impacts to people, property, infrastructure, production and the environment are also likely to increase under worsening climate conditions. Fire management programs aim to reduce the influence of worsening climatic conditions on wildfires and risk to assets now and into the future However, given the pace of changes to fire regimes, trade-offs between assets are increasingly likely. Therefore, understanding the cost-effectiveness of fire management in the form of both fuel management and suppression is critical for managers to make informed decisions regarding resource allocation. We develop and test a Bayesian Decision Network (BDN) incorporating data from ~1200 fire regime simulations capturing 16 management strategies across six regions and six climate models. We quantify the effects of management and climate on fire size and risk to environmental, infrastructure, and production assets, as well as people and property. We calculate the overall cost-effectiveness of the management scenario based on the cost of implementing the program and the subsequent cost of impacts caused by wildfires. We found that costs increased under future climate conditions for all management scenarios in most regions. Despite some regional variation in the cost-effectiveness of management scenarios we were able to identify key scenarios which consistently had high cost-effectiveness. These were combinations of prescribed burning and suppression. Importantly, the model clearly demonstrates the risk of a do-nothing approach and highlights that action is needed to prevent high impacts now and into the future and to reduce the overall costs of wildfires. [Display omitted] •Fire regimes are intensifying with climate change.•This increases risk to human and environmental assets.•Wildfire management will become less cost-effective considering climate change.•Decision support tools, can help managers prioritise cost-effective fire management strategies.