Effects of climate change on the distribution of Molossus molossus and the potential risk of Orthohantavirus transmission in the Neotropical region

• Published in: Acta tropica 2025-01, Vol.261, p.107497, Article 107497
• Main Authors: Moreira, Fernando da Silva, Rodrigues, Gratchela Dutra, Morales, Diuliani Fonseca, Donalisio, Maria Rita, Kremer, Frederico Schmitt, Krüger, Rodrigo Ferreira
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Animals; Chiroptera - virology; Climate Change; Ecological niche models; Hantavirus; Hantavirus Infections - epidemiology; Hantavirus Infections - transmission; Public health; Risk Assessment; South America - epidemiology; Velvety free-tailed bat
• ISSN: 0001-706X; 1873-6254; 1873-6254
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107497

•The Molossus molossus species is preferably found in coastal and warm areas of South America, Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean.•By 2070, projections indicate an expansion of suitable areas for the bat, especially in urbanized regions of the Neotropics.•The overlap between suitable areas for M. molossus and urban expansion regions suggests a potential risk in Orthohantavirus transmission. Molossus molossus is a widely distributed neotropical bat species in the Americas, often found in urban areas. This study evaluated climate change effects on the potential geographic distribution of M. molossus, a natural host of zoonotic pathogens such as Orthohantavirus, in the Neotropical region. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM), models were generated for current (1970–2000) and future (2070) climate scenarios based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) and two Global Circulation Models (MPI-ESM1–2-LR and IPSL-CM6A-LR). Results indicated that in the current scenario, warm and coastal areas of the Neotropics are suitable for M. molossus occurrence. Risk areas for Orthohantavirus transmission were mapped by overlapping the probability of urban expansion with projections of climatic suitability for the bat. For both future scenarios (2070), projections indicate an expansion of suitable climatic areas for M. molossus over urban expansion zones, specifically in Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, Mexico, the United States, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico. However, projections also indicate the Lesser Antilles under climate threat, considering that no climatic suitability areas will remain. These findings provide important information for planning surveillance and mitigation actions for zoonotic risks associated with M. molossus, considering climate change impacts on its geographic distribution in the Neotropical region. [Display omitted]