Integrating habitat‐masked range maps with quantifications of prevalence to estimate area of occupancy in IUCN assessments

• Published in: Conservation biology 2023-02, Vol.37 (1), p.e14019-n/a
• Main Author: Anderson, Robert P.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: amenazada; Animals; AOO; Assessments; Biodiversity; Collections; Conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources - methods; detección; detection; distribución geográfica; Ecosystem; Endangered Species; Estimates; extinción; extinction; Extinction, Biological; geographic distribution; Habitats; IUCN Red List; Land cover; Lista Roja UICN; Museums; Natural history; Nature conservation; Occupancy; occupied; ocupada; Prevalence; R&D; Research & development; riesgo; risk; threatened; Threatened species
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14019

Estimates of species geographic ranges constitute critical input for biodiversity assessments, including those for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Area of occupancy (AOO) is one metric that IUCN uses to quantify a species’ range, but data limitations typically lead to either under‐ or overestimates (and unnecessarily wide bounds of uncertainty). Fortunately, existing methods in which range maps and land‐cover data are used to estimate the area currently holding habitat for a species can be extended to yield an unbiased range of plausible estimates for AOO. Doing so requires estimating the proportion of sites (currently containing habitat) that a species occupies within its range (i.e., prevalence). Multiplying a quantification of habitat area by prevalence yields an estimate of what the species inhabits (i.e., AOO). For species with intense sampling at many sites, presence–absence data sets or occupancy modeling allow calculation of prevalence. For other species, primary biodiversity data (records of a species’ presence at a point in space and time) from citizen‐science initiatives and research collections of natural history museums and herbaria could be used. In such cases, estimates of sample prevalence should be corrected by dividing by the species’ detectability. To estimate detectability from these data sources, extensions of inventory‐completeness analyses merit development. With investments to increase the quality and availability of online biodiversity data, consideration of prevalence should lead to tighter and more realistic bounds of AOO for many taxonomic groups and geographic regions. By leading to more realistic and representative characterizations of biodiversity, integrating maps of current habitat with estimates of prevalence should empower conservation practitioners and decision makers and thus guide actions and policy worldwide. Resumen Estimaciones de las distribuciones geográficas de las especies constituyen insumos críticos para evaluaciones de la biodiversidad, incluyendo la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional de la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN). El área de ocupación (AOO) es una métrica que usa la UICN para cuantificar la distribución de una especie aunque, típicamente, limitaciones en los datos disponibles hacen que métodos actuales produzcan subestimaciones o sobreestimaciones del área (y rangos de incertidumbre innecesariamente amplios).