A Mixture Model for Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Chennai, India

Abstract Serological assays used to estimate the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) often rely on manufacturers’ cutoffs established on the basis of severe cases. We conducted a household-based serosurvey of 4,677 individuals in Chennai, India, from January to...

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Published in:American journal of epidemiology 2023-09, Vol.192 (9), p.1552-1561
Main Authors: Hitchings, Matt D T, Patel, Eshan U, Khan, Rifa, Srikrishnan, Aylur K, Anderson, Mark, Kumar, K S, Wesolowski, Amy P, Iqbal, Syed H, Rodgers, Mary A, Mehta, Shruti H, Cloherty, Gavin, Cummings, Derek A T, Solomon, Sunil S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Assaying
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Heterogeneity
IgG antibody
Immunoglobulin G
Mixtures
Nucleocapsids
Practice of Epidemiology
Proteins
Serology
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Social factors
Socioeconomic factors
Socioeconomics
Vaccines
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Summary:Abstract Serological assays used to estimate the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) often rely on manufacturers’ cutoffs established on the basis of severe cases. We conducted a household-based serosurvey of 4,677 individuals in Chennai, India, from January to May 2021. Samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins. We calculated seroprevalence, defining seropositivity using manufacturer cutoffs and using a mixture model based on measured IgG level. Using manufacturer cutoffs, there was a 5-fold difference in seroprevalence estimated by each assay. This difference was largely reconciled using the mixture model, with estimated anti-S and anti-N IgG seroprevalence of 64.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 63.8, 66.0) and 51.5% (95% CrI: 50.2, 52.9), respectively. Age and socioeconomic factors showed inconsistent relationships with anti-S and anti-N IgG seropositivity using manufacturer cutoffs. In the mixture model, age was not associated with seropositivity, and improved household ventilation was associated with lower seropositivity odds. With global vaccine scale-up, the utility of the more stable anti-S IgG assay may be limited due to the inclusion of the S protein in several vaccines. Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence using alternative targets must consider heterogeneity in seroresponse to ensure that seroprevalence is not underestimated and correlates are not misinterpreted.
ISSN:0002-9262
1476-6256
DOI:10.1093/aje/kwad103