Evaluation of phase-adjusted interventions for COVID-19 using an improved SEIR model

A local COVID-19 outbreak with two community clusters occurred in a large industrial city, Shaoxing, China, in December 2021 after serial interventions were imposed. We aimed to understand the reason by analysing the characteristics of the outbreak and evaluating the effects of phase-adjusted interv...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2023-11, Vol.152, p.e9-e9, Article e9
Main Authors: Jiang, Honglin, Gu, Zhouhong, Liu, Haitong, Huang, Junhui, Wang, Zhengzhong, Xiong, Ying, Tong, Yixin, Yin, Jiangfan, Jiang, Feng, Chen, Yue, Jiang, Qingwu, Zhou, Yibiao
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asymptomatic
China - epidemiology
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 vaccines
Disease Outbreaks
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Humans
Infections
Monte Carlo simulation
Original Paper
Outbreaks
Prevention
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Tracing
Viral diseases
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Summary:A local COVID-19 outbreak with two community clusters occurred in a large industrial city, Shaoxing, China, in December 2021 after serial interventions were imposed. We aimed to understand the reason by analysing the characteristics of the outbreak and evaluating the effects of phase-adjusted interventions. Publicly available data from 7 December 2021 to 25 January 2022 were collected to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak. The incubation period was estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. A well-fitted extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to simulate the impact of different interventions under various combination of scenarios. There were 387 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases identified, and 8.3% of them were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic cases. The estimated incubation period was 5.4 (95% CI 5.2–5.7) days for all patients. Strengthened measures of comprehensive quarantine based on tracing led to less infections and a shorter duration of epidemic. With a same period of incubation, comprehensive quarantine was more effective in containing the transmission than other interventions. Our findings reveal an important role of tracing and comprehensive quarantine in blocking community spread when a cluster occurred. Regions with tense resources can adopt home quarantine as a relatively affordable and low-impact intervention measure compared with centralized quarantine.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268823001796