The long-term expansion and recession of human populations

Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological re...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2024-03, Vol.121 (12), p.e2312207121
Main Authors: Freeman, Jacob, Robinson, Erick, Bird, Darcy, Hard, Robert J, Mauldin, Raymond P, Anderies, John M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Archaeology
Biological Sciences
Carbohydrates
Human populations
Humans
Innovations
Land use
Population decline
Population Density
Population Dynamics
Population Growth
Social Sciences
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Summary:Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2312207121