Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities

Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, . There is reported asynchrony between peak infection...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the Royal Society interface 2024-07, Vol.21 (216), p.20240106
Main Authors: John, Reju Sam, Fatoyinbo, Hammed Olawale, Hayman, David T S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Africa, Western - epidemiology
Animals
Disease Reservoirs - virology
Female
Humans
Lassa Fever - epidemiology
Lassa Fever - transmission
Lassa Fever - virology
Lassa virus - physiology
Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
Models, Biological
Murinae - virology
Seasons
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Summary:Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, . There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text])-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, , with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text], for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.
ISSN:1742-5689
1742-5662
1742-5662
DOI:10.1098/rsif.2024.0106