Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on the Incidence of Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer (20-44 Years) from 1990 to 2021 in the United States

The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals under 50 years old is rapidly increasing in the United States. This study aims to evaluate EO-CRC incidence rates using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, providing insights into trends from 1990 to 2021. We...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Cancers 2024-08, Vol.16 (16), p.2883
Main Authors: Aldhaleei, Wafa A, Wallace, Michael B, Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adenomatous polyposis coli
Age
Age groups
Cancer
Colorectal cancer
Colorectal carcinoma
Demographic aspects
Disease prevention
Distribution
Epidemiology
Estimates
Females
Forecasts and trends
Population
Statistical analysis
Trends
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Summary:The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals under 50 years old is rapidly increasing in the United States. This study aims to evaluate EO-CRC incidence rates using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, providing insights into trends from 1990 to 2021. We employed an age-period-cohort (APC) model analysis to estimate the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on EO-CRC incidence. Our findings indicate that the number of EO-CRC cases rose from 6256 (95% UI: 6059-6456) in 1990 to 9311 (95% UI: 8859-9744) in 2021, a 49% increase from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 population increased by 34% during this period. The net drift in females (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.20-0.24) was slightly higher than in males (0.21%, 95% CI: 0.19-0.23) ( = 0.45). The APC analysis revealed that being over 25 years old, the period from 2005-2021, and being born after 1983 negatively impacted EO-CRC incidence rates, with a sharp rise after 2000 and a reduction among females from 2017 to 2021. Our study highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies and further research to understand these trends.
ISSN:2072-6694
2072-6694
DOI:10.3390/cancers16162883