Age, period, and cohort effects of Clonorchis sinensis infection prevalence in the Republic of Korea: Insights and projections

With decades of containment efforts, the prevalence of C. sinensis infection in Korea has shown a declining trend. However, well-tailored intervention assessments remain challenging, particularly when considering the potential impacts of cohort variations in raw freshwater fish consumption behavior,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2024-10, Vol.18 (10), p.e0012574
Main Authors: Jung, Sung-Mok, Kang, Heewon, Jung, Bong-Kwang, Ju, Sejin, Ju, Jung-Won, Lee, Myoung-Ro, Kim, Jong-Hun, Kim, Sung Hye
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Analysis
Animal behavior
Biology and Life Sciences
Fluke infections
Forecasts and trends
Fresh water
Health aspects
Infection
Medical research
Medicine and Health Sciences
Medicine, Experimental
People and Places
Physiological aspects
Statistics
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Summary:With decades of containment efforts, the prevalence of C. sinensis infection in Korea has shown a declining trend. However, well-tailored intervention assessments remain challenging, particularly when considering the potential impacts of cohort variations in raw freshwater fish consumption behavior, a major transmission route to humans, on this observed decline. We applied an age-period-cohort modeling approach to nationally representative C. sinensis infection prevalence data from 1981-2012 in Korea to assess age, period, and cohort effects on its secular trend and to project the age-stratified prevalence up to 2023. Our analysis suggests that both cohort and period effects have substantially contributed to the declining prevalence of C. sinensis infection in Korea. Age-stratified projections up to 2023 suggest a decline in prevalence across all age groups, while those aged over 40 are anticipated to maintain prevalences above the elimination threshold of 1%. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating cohort effects into intervention assessments aimed at controlling C. sinensis infection. The effectiveness of interventions remains evident in Korea despite adjusting for the cohort effect. This approach, applicable to other endemic countries, would provide valuable insights for intervention assessments and inform future public health planning to eliminate C. sinensis infection.
ISSN:1935-2735
1935-2727
1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0012574