A swash-backwash model of the single epidemic wave

While there is a large literature on the form of epidemic waves in the time domain, models of their structure and shape in the spatial domain remain poorly developed. This paper concentrates on the changing spatial distribution of an epidemic wave over time and presents a simple method for identifyi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of geographical systems 2006-09, Vol.8 (3), p.227-252
Main Authors: CLIFF, Andrew D, HAGGETT, Peter
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Backwash
Biological and medical sciences
Diffusion
Epidemics
General aspects
Human viral diseases
Infections
Infectious diseases
Measles
Medical sciences
Phase transitions
Population
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Spatial distribution
Studies
Trailing edges
Viral diseases
Viral diseases with cutaneous or mucosal lesions and viral diseases of the eye
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Summary:While there is a large literature on the form of epidemic waves in the time domain, models of their structure and shape in the spatial domain remain poorly developed. This paper concentrates on the changing spatial distribution of an epidemic wave over time and presents a simple method for identifying the leading and trailing edges of the spatial advance and retreat of such waves. Analysis of edge characteristics is used to (a) disaggregate waves into 'swash' and 'backwash' stages, (b) measure the phase transitions of areas from susceptible, S, through infective, I, to recovered, R, status (S --> I --> R) as dimensionless integrals and (c) estimate a spatial version of the basic reproduction number, R(0). The methods used are illustrated by application to measles waves in Iceland over a 60-year period from 1915 to 1974. Extensions of the methods for use with more complex waves are possible through modifying the threshold values used to define the start and end points of an event.
ISSN:1435-5930
1435-5949
DOI:10.1007/s10109-006-0027-8