Early prediction of the long term evolution of multiple sclerosis: the Bayesian Risk Estimate for Multiple Sclerosis (BREMS) score

Aim: To propose a simple tool for early prediction of unfavourable long term evolution of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: A Bayesian model allowed us to calculate, within the first year of disease and for each patient, the Bayesian Risk Estimate for MS (BREMS) score that represents the risk of rea...

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Published in:Journal of neurology, neurosurgery and psychiatry neurosurgery and psychiatry, 2007-07, Vol.78 (7), p.757-759
Main Authors: Bergamaschi, Roberto, Quaglini, Silvana, Trojano, Maria, Amato, Maria Pia, Tavazzi, Eleonora, Paolicelli, Damiano, Zipoli, Valentina, Romani, Alfredo, Fuiani, Aurora, Portaccio, Emilio, Berzuini, Carlo, Montomoli, Cristina, Bastianello, Stefano, Cosi, Vittorio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian Risk Estimate for Multiple Sclerosis
Biological and medical sciences
BREMS
Cohort Studies
Disease Progression
EDSS
Expanded Disability Status Scale
Female
Females
Humans
Immunomodulators
local relative risk
LRR
Male
Medical sciences
Monte Carlo simulation
Multiple sclerosis
Multiple Sclerosis - pathology
Multiple sclerosis and variants. Guillain barré syndrome and other inflammatory polyneuropathies. Leukoencephalitis
Neurology
Pharmacology. Drug treatments
Prognosis
relapsing–remitting
secondary progression
Severity of Illness Index
Short Report
Studies
Survival analysis
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Summary:Aim: To propose a simple tool for early prediction of unfavourable long term evolution of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: A Bayesian model allowed us to calculate, within the first year of disease and for each patient, the Bayesian Risk Estimate for MS (BREMS) score that represents the risk of reaching secondary progression (SP). Results: The median BREMS scores were higher in 158 patients who reached SP within 10 years compared with 1087 progression free patients (0.69 vs 0.30; p
ISSN:0022-3050
1468-330X
DOI:10.1136/jnnp.2006.107052