Predictors of pulmonary exacerbations in patients with cystic fibrosis infected with multi-resistant bacteria

• Published in: Thorax 2006-11, Vol.61 (11), p.969-974
• Main Authors: Block, J K, Vandemheen, K L, Tullis, E, Fergusson, D, Doucette, S, Haase, D, Berthiaume, Y, Brown, N, Wilcox, P, Bye, P, Bell, S, Noseworthy, M, Pedder, L, Freitag, A, Paterson, N, Aaron, S D
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Anti-Bacterial Agents - administration & dosage; Antibiotics; Bacteria; bacterial resistance; Biological and medical sciences; BMI; body mass index; Clinical trials; Confidence intervals; Cystic Fibrosis; Cystic Fibrosis - complications; Cystic Fibrosis - drug therapy; Drug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterial; Errors of metabolism; Female; FEV1; Follow-Up Studies; Forced Expiratory Volume; forced expiratory volume in 1 second; forced vital capacity; FVC; Humans; Infections; Lung Diseases - drug therapy; Lung Diseases - microbiology; lung infections; Male; Medical sciences; Metabolic diseases; Miscellaneous hereditary metabolic disorders; Mortality; Multidrug resistant organisms; Multivariate Analysis; Patients; Pneumology; Predictive Value of Tests; Prospective Studies; pulmonary exacerbations; Research ethics; Risk Factors; Steroids - adverse effects; Variables
• ISSN: 0040-6376; 1468-3296
• DOI: 10.1136/thx.2006.061366

Background: This study examined characteristics of adult and adolescent patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) to determine factors associated with an increased risk of pulmonary exacerbations. Methods: 249 patients with CF infected with multidrug resistant bacteria were recruited and prospectively followed for up to 4.5 years until they experienced a pulmonary exacerbation severe enough to require intravenous antibiotics. Multivariable regression analyses were used to compare the characteristics of patients who experienced an exacerbation with those who did not. Results: 124 of the 249 patients (50%) developed a pulmonary exacerbation during the first year and 154 (62%) experienced an exacerbation during the 4.5 year study period. Factors predictive of exacerbations in a multivariable survival model were younger age (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96 to 0.99), female sex (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.95), lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99), and a previous history of multiple pulmonary exacerbations (OR 3.16, 95% CI 1.93 to 5.17). Chronic use of inhaled corticosteroids was associated with an increased risk of exacerbation (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.00 to 3.71) during the first study year. Conclusions: Patients who experience pulmonary exacerbations are more likely to be younger, female, using inhaled steroids, have a lower FEV1, and a history of multiple previous exacerbations. It is hoped that knowledge of these risk factors will allow better identification and closer monitoring of patients who are at high risk of exacerbations.