Trends in breast cancer incidence in Hong Kong between 1973 and 1999: an age-period-cohort analysis

Hong Kong has the highest breast cancer incidence in Asia and studying secular changes in its rates may lead to hypotheses regarding disease aetiology and also predictions of future trends for China. We examined statistics from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry based on 26 566 cases of invasive breast c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:British journal of cancer 2002-10, Vol.87 (9), p.982-988
Main Authors: Leung, G M, Thach, T Q, Lam, T-H, Hedley, A J, Foo, W, Fielding, R, Yip, P S F, Lau, E M C, Wong, C-M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Age Distribution
Age Factors
Age groups
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Biomedicine
Breast cancer
Breast Neoplasms - epidemiology
Cancer Research
Cohort Studies
Drug Resistance
Epidemiology
Female
Gynecology. Andrology. Obstetrics
Hong Kong - epidemiology
Hospitals
Humans
Incidence
Lifestyles
Longitudinal Studies
Mammary gland diseases
Medical research
Medical sciences
Middle Aged
Molecular Medicine
Oncology
Registries
Risk Factors
Trends
Tropical medicine
Tumors
Westernization
Womens health
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Summary:Hong Kong has the highest breast cancer incidence in Asia and studying secular changes in its rates may lead to hypotheses regarding disease aetiology and also predictions of future trends for China. We examined statistics from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry based on 26 566 cases of invasive breast cancer from 1973 to 1999. The trends in breast cancer incidence were studied using log-linear longitudinal models. We further analysed the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort on incidence trends using age-period-cohort modelling. The average annual per cent change of the age-standardised incidence was 3.6% during 1973–1999. Age-period-cohort modelling indicated the incidence development was predominantly a cohort effect, where the rise in relative risk was seemingly linear in successive birth cohorts, showing a 2–3-fold difference when comparing women born in the 1960's with those born around 1900. Our results suggest that direct and indirect consequences of westernisation may have been responsible for most of the observed increase in breast cancer incidence. As China moves towards a more westernised way of life, we can expect an emerging epidemic of breast cancer as Hong Kong's experience has demonstrated.
ISSN:0007-0920
1532-1827
DOI:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600583