Patterns of mortality and their changes in France (1968–99): insights into the structure of diseases leading to death and epidemiological transition in an industrialised country

Background: Epidemiological transition theory is based on a succession of specific “patterns” of causes of death in human societies. However, the reality and consistency of patterns of causes of death in a population at a given moment has never been formally and statistically evaluated. Methods: Cor...

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Published in:Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979) 2006-11, Vol.60 (11), p.945-955
Main Authors: Coste, J, Bernardin, E, Jougla, E
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Age
Age Distribution
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Cause of Death - trends
Certification
Connective tissue diseases
Correlation analysis
Death Certificates
Developed Countries
Digestive system diseases
Epidemiology
Female
France - epidemiology
General aspects
History
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
ICD
Industry
International Classification of Diseases
Life Sciences
Male
Medical sciences
Mental illness
Middle Aged
Miscellaneous
Mortality
Nervous system diseases
Parasitic skin diseases
PCA
Principal Component Analysis
Principal components analysis
Public health
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Research Report
RESEARCH REPORTS
Respiratory diseases
Sex Distribution
Sexually transmitted diseases
Skin diseases
STD
Symptoms
Variables
WHO
World Health Organization
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creator Coste, J
Bernardin, E
Jougla, E
description Background: Epidemiological transition theory is based on a succession of specific “patterns” of causes of death in human societies. However, the reality and consistency of patterns of causes of death in a population at a given moment has never been formally and statistically evaluated. Methods: Correlation analyses and principal component analysis were used to explore the correlation between age and sex cause-specific death rates and to identify consistent patterns of mortality in France for two periods: 1968–79 and 1988–99. Results: Cause-specific death rates in France from 1988 to 1999 were found to be strongly and consistently correlated across space and time. The analysis outlines four specific patterns: mortality of 45–84-year olds, mostly by neoplasms, cardiovascular and digestive diseases; mortality of the oldest old (>84 years); mortality of 25–64-year-old men, notably by HIV infection; and mortality by injury and poisoning of 15–44-year olds. These patterns, which cover 96% of the total mortality during the period, differ from those for the period 1968–79 when respiratory diseases and conditions affecting children aged
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However, the reality and consistency of patterns of causes of death in a population at a given moment has never been formally and statistically evaluated. Methods: Correlation analyses and principal component analysis were used to explore the correlation between age and sex cause-specific death rates and to identify consistent patterns of mortality in France for two periods: 1968–79 and 1988–99. Results: Cause-specific death rates in France from 1988 to 1999 were found to be strongly and consistently correlated across space and time. The analysis outlines four specific patterns: mortality of 45–84-year olds, mostly by neoplasms, cardiovascular and digestive diseases; mortality of the oldest old (&gt;84 years); mortality of 25–64-year-old men, notably by HIV infection; and mortality by injury and poisoning of 15–44-year olds. These patterns, which cover 96% of the total mortality during the period, differ from those for the period 1968–79 when respiratory diseases and conditions affecting children aged &lt;1 year shaped mortality. They also differ substantially from those predicted by classical epidemiological transition theory. Conclusion: This study provides evidence for an evolutionary structure of patterns of mortality in contemporary France and therefore suggests using the concept of epidemiological transition in a less simplistic way than is commonly the case. It also shows much stronger interrelationships between diseases leading to death than is usually believed and suggests that current categorisations of cause-specific mortality in populations need reconsideration.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0143-005X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1470-2738</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1136/jech.2005.044339</identifier><identifier>PMID: 17053283</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JECHDR</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</publisher><subject>Adult ; Age ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Biological and medical sciences ; Cause of Death - trends ; Certification ; Connective tissue diseases ; Correlation analysis ; Death Certificates ; Developed Countries ; Digestive system diseases ; Epidemiology ; Female ; France - epidemiology ; General aspects ; History ; Humanities and Social Sciences ; Humans ; ICD ; Industry ; International Classification of Diseases ; Life Sciences ; Male ; Medical sciences ; Mental illness ; Middle Aged ; Miscellaneous ; Mortality ; Nervous system diseases ; Parasitic skin diseases ; PCA ; Principal Component Analysis ; Principal components analysis ; Public health ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine ; Research Report ; RESEARCH REPORTS ; Respiratory diseases ; Sex Distribution ; Sexually transmitted diseases ; Skin diseases ; STD ; Symptoms ; Variables ; WHO ; World Health Organization</subject><ispartof>Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979), 2006-11, Vol.60 (11), p.945-955</ispartof><rights>Copyright 2006 Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health</rights><rights>2006 BMJ Publishing Group</rights><rights>2006 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright: 2006 Copyright 2006 Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health</rights><rights>Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</rights><rights>Copyright ©2006 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-b582t-6c7175308940d8acfe4ec39565c80e948225b05c07ded0dd4449e825a0f885763</citedby><orcidid>0000-0001-7674-7192</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://jech.bmj.com/content/60/11/945.full.pdf$$EPDF$$P50$$Gbmj$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://jech.bmj.com/content/60/11/945.full$$EHTML$$P50$$Gbmj$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>112,113,230,314,727,780,784,885,3194,27924,27925,53791,53793,58238,58471,77594,77595</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&amp;idt=18202988$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17053283$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04043533$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Coste, J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bernardin, E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jougla, E</creatorcontrib><title>Patterns of mortality and their changes in France (1968–99): insights into the structure of diseases leading to death and epidemiological transition in an industrialised country</title><title>Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979)</title><addtitle>J Epidemiol Community Health</addtitle><description>Background: Epidemiological transition theory is based on a succession of specific “patterns” of causes of death in human societies. 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Hygiene-occupational medicine</topic><topic>Research Report</topic><topic>RESEARCH REPORTS</topic><topic>Respiratory diseases</topic><topic>Sex Distribution</topic><topic>Sexually transmitted diseases</topic><topic>Skin diseases</topic><topic>STD</topic><topic>Symptoms</topic><topic>Variables</topic><topic>WHO</topic><topic>World Health Organization</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Coste, J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bernardin, E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jougla, E</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Health &amp; Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Psychology Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>British Nursing Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>BMJ Journals</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health &amp; Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Health &amp; Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>PML(ProQuest Medical Library)</collection><collection>Psychology Database (ProQuest)</collection><collection>ProQuest Science Database</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest One Psychology</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><collection>HAL-SHS: Archive ouverte en Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Coste, J</au><au>Bernardin, E</au><au>Jougla, E</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Patterns of mortality and their changes in France (1968–99): insights into the structure of diseases leading to death and epidemiological transition in an industrialised country</atitle><jtitle>Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979)</jtitle><addtitle>J Epidemiol Community Health</addtitle><date>2006-11-01</date><risdate>2006</risdate><volume>60</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>945</spage><epage>955</epage><pages>945-955</pages><issn>0143-005X</issn><eissn>1470-2738</eissn><coden>JECHDR</coden><abstract>Background: Epidemiological transition theory is based on a succession of specific “patterns” of causes of death in human societies. However, the reality and consistency of patterns of causes of death in a population at a given moment has never been formally and statistically evaluated. Methods: Correlation analyses and principal component analysis were used to explore the correlation between age and sex cause-specific death rates and to identify consistent patterns of mortality in France for two periods: 1968–79 and 1988–99. Results: Cause-specific death rates in France from 1988 to 1999 were found to be strongly and consistently correlated across space and time. The analysis outlines four specific patterns: mortality of 45–84-year olds, mostly by neoplasms, cardiovascular and digestive diseases; mortality of the oldest old (&gt;84 years); mortality of 25–64-year-old men, notably by HIV infection; and mortality by injury and poisoning of 15–44-year olds. These patterns, which cover 96% of the total mortality during the period, differ from those for the period 1968–79 when respiratory diseases and conditions affecting children aged &lt;1 year shaped mortality. They also differ substantially from those predicted by classical epidemiological transition theory. Conclusion: This study provides evidence for an evolutionary structure of patterns of mortality in contemporary France and therefore suggests using the concept of epidemiological transition in a less simplistic way than is commonly the case. It also shows much stronger interrelationships between diseases leading to death than is usually believed and suggests that current categorisations of cause-specific mortality in populations need reconsideration.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</pub><pmid>17053283</pmid><doi>10.1136/jech.2005.044339</doi><tpages>11</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7674-7192</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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ispartof Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979), 2006-11, Vol.60 (11), p.945-955
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1470-2738
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source JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection; BMJ Journals; PubMed Central
subjects Adult
Age
Age Distribution
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Cause of Death - trends
Certification
Connective tissue diseases
Correlation analysis
Death Certificates
Developed Countries
Digestive system diseases
Epidemiology
Female
France - epidemiology
General aspects
History
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
ICD
Industry
International Classification of Diseases
Life Sciences
Male
Medical sciences
Mental illness
Middle Aged
Miscellaneous
Mortality
Nervous system diseases
Parasitic skin diseases
PCA
Principal Component Analysis
Principal components analysis
Public health
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Research Report
RESEARCH REPORTS
Respiratory diseases
Sex Distribution
Sexually transmitted diseases
Skin diseases
STD
Symptoms
Variables
WHO
World Health Organization
title Patterns of mortality and their changes in France (1968–99): insights into the structure of diseases leading to death and epidemiological transition in an industrialised country
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