Where diseases and networks collide: lessons to be learnt from a study of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

• Published in: Epidemiology and infection 2005-12, Vol.133 (6), p.1023-1032
• Main Authors: SHIRLEY, M. D. F., RUSHTON, S. P.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Animal diseases; Animals; Biological and medical sciences; Cattle; Communicable Disease Control; Computer Simulation; Contact Tracing; Disease models; Disease Outbreaks - veterinary; Disease transmission; Disease Transmission, Infectious - veterinary; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Foot and mouth disease; Foot-and-Mouth Disease - epidemiology; Foot-and-Mouth Disease - transmission; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Infections; Infectious diseases; Information Services; Livestock; Microbiology; Models, Theoretical; Seroepidemiologic Studies; Vertices
• ISSN: 0950-2688; 1469-4409
• DOI: 10.1017/S095026880500453X

This paper uses a graph-theoretical approach to investigate the properties of the observed network of disease transmission in the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic in the United Kingdom. This analysis revealed both global and local heterogeneity in the contact pattern between the infected premises in the first 3 weeks of the disease. In particular, the global heterogeneity contributed to the failure of the culling strategy imposed by the UK government. However, a more effective strategy targeting selective deletion of key premises in the network was not available once the epidemic had begun. We recommend that post-hoc analyses of this sort should become part of preventative and proactive policy rather than part of a reaction to an ongoing crisis.