Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics

Ebola is a highly lethal virus, which has caused at least 14 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2006. Using data from two epidemics [in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1995 and in Uganda in 2000], we built a mathematical model for the spread of Ebola haemorrhagic fever epidemics ta...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2007-05, Vol.135 (4), p.610-621
Main Authors: LEGRAND, J., GRAIS, R. F., BOELLE, P. Y., VALLERON, A. J., FLAHAULT, A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Africa, Central - epidemiology
Biological and medical sciences
Data transmission
Disease models
Disease Outbreaks
Disease transmission
Ebola virus
Ebolavirus - pathogenicity
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Female
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - epidemiology
Hospitalization
Humans
Infectious diseases
Male
Microbiology
Models, Theoretical
Retrospective Studies
Symptoms
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Summary:Ebola is a highly lethal virus, which has caused at least 14 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2006. Using data from two epidemics [in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1995 and in Uganda in 2000], we built a mathematical model for the spread of Ebola haemorrhagic fever epidemics taking into account transmission in different epidemiological settings. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) to be 2·7 (95% CI 1·9–2·8) for the 1995 epidemic in DRC, and 2·7 (95% CI 2·5–4·1) for the 2000 epidemic in Uganda. For each epidemic, we quantified transmission in different settings (illness in the community, hospitalization, and traditional burial) and simulated various epidemic scenarios to explore the impact of control interventions on a potential epidemic. A key parameter was the rapid institution of control measures. For both epidemic profiles identified, increasing hospitalization rate reduced the predicted epidemic size.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268806007217