Markov Decision Processes: A Tool for Sequential Decision Making under Uncertainty

• Published in: Medical decision making 2010-07, Vol.30 (4), p.474-483
• Main Authors: Alagoz, Oguzhan, Hsu, Heather, Schaefer, Andrew J., Roberts, Mark S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Decision Making; Humans; Liver Transplantation; Markov Chains; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 0272-989X; 1552-681X
• DOI: 10.1177/0272989X09353194

We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.